Newsletter Archive - Dollars & Sense
BIA/Kelsey -- Digital Products Result in 39% of YP Industry Revenues by 2014
07/20/2010 - BIA/Kelsey Group are the acknowledged leaders in this industry for insights into the future direction of this industry. This week they released a new forecast that digital products (e.g. online Yellow Pages, video, SEM/SEO, mobile, social and reputation management), will account for 39% of global Yellow Pages revenues by 2014. This forecast and the issues around the anticipated growth in digital offerings will be a focus of the agenda at BIA/Kelsey's upcoming Directional Media Strategies 2010 (DMS '10: Yellow Pages and Beyond) conference (www.kelseygroup.com/dms2010), which takes place Sept. 14-16 in Dallas.
So if my math is right, that means that 61% of the industry revenues will still come from those good old phone books, which no one supposedly uses, which advertisers no long should be advertising in any more, and all in an industry that is supposed to be dying???
According to this latest BIA/Kelsey forecast, the growth in digital offerings is occurring globally, although at varied rates and with a different emphasis in regions around the world. Some of the trends noted in the forecast include:
- U.S. – Digital revenues in the United States will grow at a 17.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as the result of publishers selling a wider array of digital products. BIA/Kelsey expects strong growth from the more established digital offerings, including Web sites, SEM and video. Growth is anticipated to be even more robust in newer categories such as reputation management, SEO, social and mobile.
- Europe – Digital revenues will surpass print revenues across Europe by 2014, and even sooner in several markets such as Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Belgium and France.
- Latin America – Estimates are that in 2009 digital will account for 6.2% of total revenues and will grow to 11.8% by 2014.
- Asia/Pacific Rim – Online directory revenues in Asia, Pacific Rim, and the rest of the world (ROW) will grow by US$446 million during the forecast period, a 12.8% CAGR. Some emerging markets in the region, including China, are not expected to follow a traditional directory path, moving from a base of print to online and eventually to mobile. Rather, directional media will follow a pattern that is more vertical and mobile in nature, quickly bypassing print and Internet Yellow Pages as a significant product category.
The growth in digital is impressive, but I am still trying to get a grasp on why that 61% of the industry revenues that will still come from those good old phone books even some 4+ years from now also isn’t big news.
"We expect to see certain publishers outperforming our forecast," said Charles Laughlin, BIA/Kelsey senior vice president, program director and DMS '10 conference chairman. "Their ability to do so depends on the economy and their efforts to transition into more nimble, performance-based sales organizations. Improving customer satisfaction and retention is key to this success. We'll focus on both at DMS '10 in September."
As a conference media partner, YP Talk encourages you to attend the Directional Media Strategies 2010 (DMS '10: Yellow Pages and Beyond). DMS '10 will be BIA/Kelsey's 31st conference dedicated to the future of the Yellow Pages industry. For more info you can visit www.kelseygroup.com/DMS2010.
DMS '10 is expected to present a wide vision of what the industry will look like five years from now. A wide range of sessions are planned to dive deeply into the factors that will most shape the Yellow Pages business in the future. For example topical sessions include:
- Yellow Pages, Local Search and the Path to New Digital Revenues
- The iPad — A Game Changer for Directories and Local Search?
- Ins and Outs of Reputation Management — The Next Wave of SMB Support
- Mobile Yellow Pages Leaves the Laboratory
- Social Media + Yellow Pages = A New Lease on Life?
- Leads-Based Selling: Salvation or False Hope?
- Engagement Drivers for Online Yellow Pages
- Self-Service — It's Closer Than You Think
And I look forward to being the elephant in the room pointing out that 61% of the industry revenues will still come from print phone books even in 2014.